Forecasts of the Size of the Area 10 Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus Nerka Stock From 1985-1990

Forecasts of the Size of the Area 10 Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus Nerka Stock From 1985-1990

Microform - 1987
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The Area 10 sockeye stock originates from two spawning areas within theCanadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans Statistical Area 10, located onthe central coast of British Columbia slightly north of Vancouver Island.The stock is fished in Smith Sound and Smith Inlet using gill nets.Anannual forecast of the total run size of returning Area 10 sockeye is important information useful for managing the stock. This report presentsthe results of 4 models developed to generate pre-season forecasts of thesize of the Area 10 adult sockeye salmon stock for 1985-90. Three of themodels involve linear regressions of total actual returns (catch plus escapement) on total expected returns beginning with the 1972 brood year.The expected return for any given year is determined from brood year escapements and historical information on return rate per spawner and theaverage age structure of returns. The 4th model assumes the actual returnis limited to 550,000 whenever expected return is greater than 550,000. Thereliability of the forecasts for 1985 and 1986 are evaluated and forecastsfor 1987-90 are provided.
Publisher: West Vancouver, B.C. : Dept. of Fisheries and Oceans, Fisheries Research Branch, West Vancouver Laboratory, 1987
Description: 21 p
Branch Call Number: MF BC-DOC 87-05558
Additional Contributors: Canada


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